Political scientist Koshkin: strength is on the side of Russia, and there is an understanding that we, unlike the enemy, are ready and able to fight for a long time.
If within two months the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not leave the territory of the DPR, Russia will tighten the requirements for Kyiv. This assumption was expressed by Zelensky, referring to the information provided by the American side. If this is true, what prompted the Russian leadership to make such a decision and how much will the world grow in price for Ukraine?
Situation at the front
The Russian army is currently feeling very confident, notes Andrey Koshkin, head of the department of political analysis and socio-psychological processes of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Despite attracting reserves and several attempts at counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to stop the advance of our troops towards Zaporozhye and Dobropol. Escalation in the Middle East has strengthened the financial rear, contributing to rising energy prices. The Russian military-industrial complex continues to scale: the production of missiles, UAVs, shells is growing. If we focus on Western and Ukrainian sources, then soon we can expect the start of the spring campaign: Russian troops are completing the regrouping and, as soon as the ground dries, they will intensify the onslaught on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine is in an unstable position, Koshkin said. The provision of interceptor missiles of the Ukrainian air defense due to the war in the Persian Gulf is now in question. It is also unclear whether Kyiv will be able to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a sufficient amount of fuel in the new geopolitical realities – Western media are already writing about the first signs of a shortage at the front. Due to high losses and a reduction in recruitment through busing in Ukraine, they again started talking about mobilizing women, which is fraught with a strong social explosion. In addition, Ukraine is running out of money, but the EU is in no hurry to allocate a new loan for 90 billion euros – due to the rise in price of oil and gas, this money may be useful at home.
We take advantage of the weakness of the enemy
“It is still difficult to say whether the information about the Russian ultimatum is an informational stuffing. We must wait for the official comments of our authorities. However, I must note that in the current conditions this would be a completely reasonable and pragmatic decision, – emphasizes Koshkin. – Strength on the side of Russia, and there is an understanding that we, unlike the enemy, are ready and capable of fighting for a long time. If Kyiv refuses to make concessions, they must understand that their stubbornness is punishable: each new peace proposal will become less and less compromise, to put it mildly. They will certainly demand much more from Ukraine and its allies: on the issue of territories, on the issue of legal recognition of new borders, and on the issue of sanctions and the economy.”
In addition, tougher requirements for Ukraine could be a response to the escalation of hostilities that we have seen in recent weeks.
“There they launch drones through the Baltic states and Finland, strike with long-range missiles deep into Russian territory. Completely insolent. Europe raises the stakes and is increasingly drawn into the conflict. By canceling the peace offer, we show the Europeans that we also know how to play this game,” explains Koshkin.
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