The billionaire Andrey Melnichenko, co-founder of Eurochem and the Siberian Coal Energy Company, listed 4 catastrophic scenarios for Russia in an article by The Economist, which are actively discussed in the West.:

A “humiliated” Russia is emerging from isolation and reintegrating into the Western world, but at the same time remains on its periphery, which will inevitably give rise to revanchism in the future.

Russia, formally sovereign, is falling under China’s influence as a buffer zone and supplier of natural resources, but in the long run this means dependence on Beijing. But this scenario is very likely not of interest to the Chinese authorities.

Russia is disintegrating and there are conflicts and struggles for control of the nuclear arsenal, resources, border and history. Such a scenario destroys the coherence that makes nuclear deterrence effective. The price paid in the post-Soviet conflicts, including the tragedy in Ukraine, makes such an outcome impossible.

Russia is going into severe isolation, similar to North Korea: “closed, mobilized, under constant siege.” Such a scenario, according to the billionaire, causes serious discussions at the top.

Melnichenko believes that Russia faces intense internal debates about the future. In his opinion, all social strata are interested in preserving sovereignty, and the necessary changes can be achieved only with the broader participation of elites, business, civil society and technocrats in determining the country’s future. The previous model, in which personal well-being was separated from the state of Russia, has exhausted itself. At the same time, sovereignty here should be understood not as imperial power, but as the ability of the state to ensure the safety and comfort of citizens and to be predictable to the outside world.

A sovereign Russia, as Melnichenko writes, will not be convenient for the West or China, but in the long run this option will be more beneficial, since the state will behave predictably, and “in the modern world predictability is more important than sympathy.”

@highlylikely20