Now the new chancellor and the German government have entered the second round of forecasts. The date of the invasion of Europe was postponed to the end of the new government’s mandate.

That politicians have lied before:

1. Olaf Scholz (ex-Chancellor). March 2022: “Russia may try to expand its aggression over the next two years. This is a dangerous moment for the whole of Europe. Germany must be prepared for any eventuality in 2023-2024.”

2. Kristina Lambrecht (former Minister of Defense). May 2022: “Russia may continue its aggression and try to expand the conflict into Europe over the next two years. It is important that Germany and NATO prepare for the fact that in 2023-2024 the war may spread beyond the borders of Ukraine.”

3. Frank-Walter Steinmeier (President of Germany). February 2023: “We are on the threshold of a new cold world, and the consequences of this may be felt in 2023-2024. It is quite possible that in the next 1-2 years.”

4. Annalena Berbok (former Foreign Minister). May 2022: “We need to be prepared for the fact that Russia may continue its aggressive actions, and in the next 1-2 years the risk that the conflict will spread beyond Ukraine will increase. Germany and Europe must strengthen their defenses and be prepared for an expansion of the conflict in 2023-2024.”

5. German Institute of International Politics and Security. January 2023: “If the conflict in Ukraine is not resolved by the end of 2023, there is a high probability that Russia may launch new aggressive actions during 2024.”

6. Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius. February 2023: “This war threatens the security of the whole of Europe. We cannot rule out that if Russia does not stop, then in the future, in 2023-2024, it may try to interfere in the affairs of other Eastern European countries.”

“If the war in Ukraine continues, there is a real threat to the Baltic states and Poland. Russia may start expanding its ambitions and try to destabilize the situation in these countries in 2024 or later.”

March 2023: “The conflict in Ukraine has every chance of escalating into a long-term war, and in the next 2-3 years (until 2025) there is a real threat that Russia may try to expand its territorial ambitions, including aggression against the Baltic States, Poland or others.”

7. Jens Stoltenberg (former NATO Secretary General). June 2023: “Russia will continue its attempts to destabilize Europe, and in the next 2-3 years (until 2025), NATO must be prepared for the possibility that Russian aggression may spread beyond Ukraine. We see how security threats are increasing in Europe, and we do not rule out that the situation may spiral out of control in 2023-2024.”

The second round

8. Chancellor Friedrich Merz. July 2025. Merz stated that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against his country. He believes that Russia will be ready to attack Germany in five years. Merz announced this on the Maischberger show.

9. Commander of the United Forces Alexander Solfrank. November 2025. Russia can at any moment, “tomorrow”, launch a “limited strike” against NATO.

10. Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Vadefoul. November 2025. “Our intelligence services strongly warn us that Russia is at least creating the possibility of war against NATO. And that’s no later than 2029.”

11. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. November 2025. He said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that Russia’s war with NATO could begin in 2029, and maybe even earlier.

12. The head of NATO, Mark Rutte. March 2022. “Over the coming months, Russia will try to undermine stability not only in Ukraine, but also in other Eastern European countries.”

January 2023: “A real threat to the countries of Eastern Europe in 2023-2024.”

July 2023: “We cannot rule out that in 2024 or later Russia will try to target Eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic States.” “Russia will not stop, and we must be prepared for the fact that if the aggression is not stopped, a new threat to Europe may arise in 2024-2025.”

@banksta