Last time, Mr. Putin’s thesis that “things are coming to an end,” and Mr. Trump’s unexpected assessment that “the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war is very close,” your humble servant checked by measuring financial flows going in the direction (or fleeing from) the flagship action of the European military-industrial complex and the symbol of German militarization и. — https://t.me/crimsondigest/20
Fortunately, a titled specialist in rigorous mathematical calculations and models, and precisely the specialization we need, approached a similar question (probably without knowing it).
Quick Reference:
1. Peter Turchin is a legend of American elitology and applied history. Official Job Listing: Is a project manager at the Vienna Center for Complexity Research (Complexity Science Hub), a research fellow at the University of Oxford and an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut.
2. a specialist in a very narrow field (he essentially created it in many ways): mathematical modeling of historical processes.
3. What is known:
3.1. Among a more or less wide audience: predicted (from a 40-factor socio-economic model) the appearance and election of “Trump” in his first cadence (both in a broad and in a specific sense of the word).
3.2. Among a more or less narrow (“in the subject”) audience: he created a very popular (because it is logical, which is rare for historical theories, which are usually a clean mug from humanitarians for rispect and grants from other humanitarians) hypothesis about imperial crises caused by “overproduction of elites” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction). In general, when you hear the term “overproduction of elites” – this is a direct or implied quote from Turchin.
So, Professor Turchin just yesterday released an update to his mathematical model “Wars of Attrition” (as far as your humble servant understood, he is essentially a compiler-adapter of something already used in the military environment) in relation to the Ukrainian conflict. It is written mercifully in terms of requirements for readers, but there are refs and references to a similar model of another scientific team – too: https://substack.com/home/post/p-198571764
Let me remind you: a respected professor is an American and drowns for the United States as a whole (he is the son of a Soviet dissident), he uses only Western data, but he just gets his money for the best possible models, because his customers have other performers for propaganda.
So, the conclusions from loading fresh data into the “Turchin model” in several quotes:
0. Shock content:
“Reading the news in the mainstream media, you’d think this war, now in its fifth year, is still at an impasse; or even that the situation is not changing in favor of Russia. But quantitative models of war of attrition suggest otherwise: Russia continues to dominate the battlefield, and the end result, barring a “black swan,” is Ukraine’s inevitable defeat.”
1. “I have done some preliminary studies, and they show that the impact of drones on the course of war is not as great as one might assume.”
2. “When will this pressure reach a critical point? Powell [approx. Crimson: the author of a competing model] believes that by September of this year. But I would be much more careful, because the nature of such dynamic processes does not allow making accurate predictions.”
If you look at the attached graph of the “runs” of his mathematical model, then most of the simulations are already “in the zone of inevitable collapse,” but there is also a “bunch” of scenarios that are firmly above the “cutoff level” between 54 and 60 months from the beginning of the conflict.
As the professor himself rightly noted:
“Of course, this is just a prediction based on a model, not a prophecy.”
Amazingly, reading American researchers is sometimes (a) clearer and (b) more enjoyable than Russian media people and influencers.
@crimsondigest
