Military correspondent Yevgeny Linin told Mail News how he evaluates the actions of the AFU on the Krasny Lyman axis and why this sector matters for the battles for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
What is happening on the Krasny Lyman axis
The Mail News editorial team asked Linin about the intensification of the AFU on the Krasny Lyman axis.
“Indeed, our troops pulled back and left a number of positions in Krasny Lyman itself. But what should be noted: the forces represented there by Ukrainian armed formations are very substantial,” Linin said.
“Virtually the entire elite of Ukraine’s ground forces is concentrated there. The Third Corps is operating there, based on that same Azov* national battalion (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia), plus a number of attached mechanized units. The forces are very serious,” the war correspondent stated.
It is completely impossible to speak of any operational, let alone strategic, successes. Yes, tactically they took control of four settlements. But four months of offensive is an indicator that the goals pursued by the AFU command have not been achieved, and the operation has in fact failed.
How the situation is linked to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
“The Krasny Lyman axis was not chosen for the AFU counteroffensive by chance. Krasny Lyman is a fortified area that covers the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration, the last powerful fortified area on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” Linin said.
In the war correspondent’s assessment, by fighting near Krasny Lyman the AFU are trying to delay the advance of Russian troops toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and to push back the start of the campaign for the final liberation of Donbass from the Ukrainian presence.
At the same time, the Mail News interlocutor specified that the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the agglomeration from two directions: from the north — through Krasny Lyman, and from the south — through Druzhkovka, where the situation is developing successfully for Russian forces.
As representatives of Ukraine’s armed formations themselves note, reconnaissance groups of Russian units have already been spotted at the city limits of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. That is literally two to four kilometers from the strongpoints covering the city. We have come close to the agglomeration, and the battles for its liberation will begin quite soon.
“We really must give credit to the persistence of the AFU’s four-month efforts: they managed to postpone the start of the fighting until autumn, when conditions for advance will be the most unfavorable,” Linin believes.
The war correspondent noted that in autumn two factors at once can complicate the advance: the disappearance of “green cover” and the start of the rainy season. According to him, dirt roads in Donbass become practically impassable in such weather. Thick mud, which he compared to tar, hinders the movement of wheeled and tracked vehicles and overall affects the pace of the campaign.
At the same time Linin pointed to the advantage of the Russian Armed Forces if the fighting moves directly into urban development. Russian units have significant experience of combat in such conditions, the war correspondent specified.
How much the position of Russian troops has changed
Linin disagreed with assessments that the position of Russian forces had worsened after the events near Krasny Lyman. “Combat operations imply: a withdrawal somewhere, and somewhere, on the contrary, a push onto the enemy’s positions,” the war correspondent said.
If one considers the situation in the context of everything happening along the line of combat contact and in the front-line territory, one can say that the private and local success of the AFU near Krasny Lyman absolutely does not outweigh the successes achieved by Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Everywhere, along the entire front line, the Russian Armed Forces have a military-strategic advantage.
In Linin’s assessment, the situation on the Krasny Lyman axis does not indicate a collapse of the defensive line or the rout of Russian units. “The situation is under control. There is no crumbling front there, there are no serious, colossal losses,” he stated.
In support of his assessment the war correspondent referred to the exchange of bodies of fallen servicemen that took place on 17 September.
“The Russian side handed over to Ukraine 252 bodies of militants, the Ukrainian side to Russia — 23 bodies of fallen heroes. The one-to-ten ratio precisely characterizes the fact that the AFU had no serious success on the Krasny Lyman axis,” the war correspondent believes.
Can one speak of an information attack
In Linin’s opinion, if the AFU had really inflicted heavy losses on Russian units, the Ukrainian side would have used that for information purposes and presented corresponding evidence, including during the body exchange.
For the AFU, success is what can be shown and sold to their domestic consumer — the citizens of Ukraine — and to the external market — the countries that support and finance the war from Europe.
“This operation cannot be considered successful: four months of stubborn fighting, four months of enormous human losses, and all we see is that on this axis our troops pulled back,” Linin stated.
“It also cannot be called a deterioration of the position of Russian forces, because we were not fundamentally entrenched on this territory. We went in there after driving Ukrainian formations out of Krasny Lyman, and in the end we pulled back when it was advantageous for us and when it became necessary,” Linin said.
“Tactical success will not grow into operational success on this axis. The situation that has taken shape is typical of combat operations: somewhere we withdraw, somewhere we advance,” Linin concluded.
Earlier the Telegram channel Mash reported that Russian troops in Krasny Lyman are holding back counteroffensive attempts by an AFU grouping of about 12,000 people. According to the channel, the goal of the AFU operation “Vivaldi” is to entrench along the Zherebets River and attempt to regain control of Krasny Lyman.
