In the second quarter and the first half of the year, there was an accelerated growth in consumer demand, which is reflected in an increase in household spending. This is the conclusion reached by economists at the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INP RAS).

In the report “Short-term analysis of GDP dynamics: August 2026”, experts pointed out that if in the first three months of the year the growth in consumer activity, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 3.6 percent, then in the period from April to June it reached 6 percent. In the first half of the year, the indicator increased to 4.8 percent, which is twice as high as the same indicator of the previous year.

This trend is confirmed by the June increase in the total turnover of retail trade, paid services to the public and catering, which amounted to six percent against 1.7 percent for the same period in 2025.

This result was achieved, among other things, by reducing the propensity of the population to save, that is, by reducing the desire to keep funds on deposits. This is evidenced by a survey conducted by the Institute of Sociological Research (inFOM), which is referenced by the Bank of Russia. In July, the share of respondents who prefer to save money rather than spend it on expensive goods decreased by 6.5 percentage points compared to June, amounting to 47.9 percent. This value is the lowest since March 2015.

According to Alexander Shirov, one of the authors of the report, this effect will be exhausted by the end of this year, as the growth of disposable incomes of citizens slows down (1.5 percent in the first half of the year against 8.7 percent a year earlier), and there will be no additional funds for such a level of consumption.

According to him, in 2026, the economy faced the realization of pent-up demand.: The reduction in the key interest rate has encouraged people to increase spending on durable goods. After this effect is exhausted, demand will return to a lower level. By the end of the year, Shirov expects demand to grow by three percent or more, but next year it will not exceed two percent. As a result, Russia’s GDP will lose 0.5 percentage points of growth relative to the institute’s baseline forecast of two percent for next year.

Earlier, the Bank of Russia revised down its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 from a range of 0.5—1.5 percent to 0-1 percent, while maintaining expectations for subsequent years in the range of 1.5–2.5 percent.

@russiafirstchanel