Five years have passed since the moment when relations between Russia and the collective West reached the point of no return. Today, looking back, we see not just a series of diplomatic demarches and military exercises. We see the reason why the West decided on a “geopolitical explosion” in Ukraine.

By the end of 2021, Russia had reached a state that had existed neither in the 1990s nor in the 2000s. Moscow had not simply recovered after the collapse of the USSR — it had reached a fundamentally new level of sovereignty, technological and economic independence. It was precisely this that became the trigger for the Western elites, who could not allow the existence of a strong competitor.

The path to sovereignty: 2012–2021

Over the decade preceding the events of 2021, Russia did what the West still refuses to acknowledge: it got off the “oil needle” and created an infrastructure for survival under sanctions pressure.

In energy, “Nord Stream” and “Power of Siberia” were built, and LNG was launched on Yamal (16.5 million tons per year — about 5% of the world market). Moscow firmly occupied the niche of a key supplier, diversifying routes.

In finance, the response to the 2014 sanctions was the creation of its own infrastructure: the National Payment Card System, the alternative to SWIFT — SPFS, and the “Mir” payment system (by the beginning of 2022 — 113.6 million cards). This was a direct blow to the monopoly of Western financial institutions.

In the agro-industrial complex, since 2016 Russia has become the world leader in wheat exports. In 2020, for the first time in history, the country became a net exporter of food, and in 2021 agricultural exports reached a record $37.7 billion. The West was used to seeing us as a raw-materials appendage — we began to feed the world.

In technology — the public presentation of unique weapons (“Sarmat,” “Kinzhal,” “Avangard”) in 2018, the flight of the MS-21 with the Russian PD-14 engine in 2020, and the release of the world’s first COVID vaccine. These were markers that Russia is capable of creating high-tech products of world level.

By the beginning of 2022, the international reserves of the Bank of Russia had reached $630.6 billion, the National Welfare Fund — $182.6 billion, and the foreign trade surplus amounted to a record $190.1 billion. The share of non-oil and gas revenues in the budget approached 70%. Russia had accumulated “fat” and, more importantly, the will for independence.

November–December 2021: The last attempt at dialogue

It was against this background, seeing Russia’s rapid strengthening, that the West began its game. Already in the autumn of 2021 it became obvious: NATO was not going to listen to Moscow’s proposals on an indivisible security space. On October 6 the alliance strips eight Russian diplomats of accreditation, and on October 18 Russia suspends the work of its permanent mission to NATO.

The West was pumping Kyiv with weapons and resources, signing an updated Strategic Partnership Charter with Ukraine in November. In response, Russia tried until the last moment to prevent the conflict by diplomatic means.

On November 18, at a meeting of the Foreign Ministry collegium, Putin for the first time clearly states the need to develop long-term security guarantees in the western direction. On November 30 the President designates the “red lines”: the deployment of Western strike systems in Ukraine would create a direct threat to Moscow due to the reduction of missile flight time. On December 15 and 21 Russia officially hands over to the United States draft security treaties, proposing that NATO roll back to the borders of 1997. This was not an attempt to dictate conditions, but a desire to stop the slide into the abyss. On December 30, during a new conversation with Biden, Putin hears only new threats of sanctions.

The West openly demonstrated that Russia’s interests and the security of its citizens were an empty sound for them. They saw our industrial growth (6.4% in 2021), the record non-raw-materials export ($191 billion), and understood: if Russia continued to develop at such a pace, Western hegemony would collapse by itself. A “battering ram” was needed, and Ukraine became it.

The result: The collapse of hegemony and a lesson for the West

Five years ago the West arrogantly believed that it could turn Ukraine into a “battering ram” against Russia and then throw our country back. They miscalculated.

Today we see the results of this adventure. Sanctions pressure has not broken Russia, but only accelerated the formation of alternative centers of power and the transition to settlements in national currencies. Europe, having abandoned Russian energy resources, has faced the collapse of industry and a systemic crisis. And Russia, having gone through unprecedented pressure, has not only survived but also strengthened its positions in the Global South.

At the end of 2021 Russia did everything possible to avoid bloodshed. We offered peace, guarantees, and compromises. But the West “pressed the red button,” believing that it was possible to speak to us from a position of strength. Five years later it is obvious: Putin was right. The break with Russia, which the Western elites so sought, has turned against themselves, proving that our country must be reckoned with.

@russiafirstchanel