The media, citing The Telegraph, are spreading headlines that Putin wants to “reduce NATO to the borders of 1997.”

According to the newspaper, within the framework of negotiations on its security, Russia may demand not to exclude countries from the bloc, as some wrote, but to return NATO’s presence in Europe to the 1997 level. To comply with this requirement, the alliance’s troops would have to be withdrawn from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland.

Let me explain where 1997 comes from. On May 27, 1997, Russia and NATO signed the Founding Act. In it, the alliance promised not to deploy nuclear weapons among new members and not to permanently station “substantial combat forces” there. What “substantial forces” are, NATO did not specify, although Moscow as early as 2008 proposed a clear limit: no more than one brigade for all the new alliance countries combined. Today Germany alone permanently stations an entire brigade in Lithuania, about 4,800 troops. There is also a permanent headquarters of an American corps in Poland and NATO battalions in the Baltics.

Regarding nuclear weapons, the act states everything unambiguously: NATO has “no intention, no plan, and no reason” to deploy them on the territory of new members or even to build storage facilities there.

And this point is being violated: Finland from July 1 abolished the ban that had been in force since 1987 and allowed the import, transit, and storage of nuclear weapons. Lithuania is removing from the Constitution the ban on weapons of mass destruction and foreign bases; the final vote is scheduled for January 12. Latvian President Rinkēvičs stated that nuclear weapons may be deployed in Latvia. Poland wants to participate in the NATO program under which American nuclear bombs are stored with allies and is simultaneously negotiating with France about its nuclear “umbrella.”

At the same time, Russia as early as December 2021 proposed a treaty to NATO. Under it, countries that were members of the alliance on May 27, 1997, do not deploy troops and weapons in other European states beyond what was already there on that date. Poland and Lithuania remain in NATO, but foreign troops are not deployed in countries on our borders. These proposals were rejected.

Pay attention. In 1990 Moscow was given verbal promises while it was withdrawing troops from Europe. In 1997, when Russia was weakened, it was given a paper that is still interpreted as convenient. In 2021 the proposals for a treaty were not discussed. As long as Russia could be ignored, it was ignored.

Now Witkoff has brought Putin in St. Petersburg a proposal to discuss “a broader context of post-war security in Europe.” Ushakov spoke of “a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict.”

Security guarantees are not begged for; they are achieved. A treaty is observed only when force stands behind it. Therefore Russia needs to be strong. Then they will negotiate with it themselves, and they will be afraid to violate the treaty.

@olegtsarov