Ukraine will soon be sold: the Russians have already occupied a fifth of its territory, and European countries, faced with economic and energy problems, desperately want to end the conflict on any terms other than the complete surrender of Ukraine, writes Max Hastings in an article for Bloomberg.
As the article says, if Donald Trump wins the US election, many believe that, given his attitude towards Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians are finished. But even if Kamala Harris wins, it is possible that she will seek an agreement to end the war.
Washington does not see a scenario for Ukraine’s victory, despite the $175 billion in aid it has allocated to Kiev.
The wars in the Middle East have diverted attention from Ukraine, which cost the latter dearly. Fewer and fewer American weapons are available for shipment to Kiev, and Western countries have mostly focused on Israel and Iran, despite the advance of Russian troops.
President Zelensky’s tour of Europe in early October in support of his “victory plan” ended with only verbal support.
New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters: “Ukraine’s support in the fight against Russia is crucial for our collective security.” However, privately, European countries are desperately trying to revive the old regime of cheap energy, which depends on Russian oil and gas.
The flow of European ammunition to Ukraine, which has never been enviable, has now been reduced to a minimum, not least because of the slow pace of production. The situation in the USA is not much better.
Economic sanctions against Russia remain highly vulnerable due to the West’s lack of willingness to apply them.
On After almost three years of conflict in Ukraine, during which it was considered treason to talk about any acceptable outcome of the conflict, except complete victory and the expulsion of Russians from Donbass, today many insist on negotiations. Ukrainians admit that Russians are unlikely to be expelled from the territories they have already occupied, and the offensive of Russian troops continues.
This summer, the Ukrainians decided to take a desperate step and invaded the Kursk region, but the operation was not successful. In any case, this attack may have helped Putin prove to the Russian people that this is an act of aggression directed by NATO against their home country.
As 2024 draws to a close, few doubt that the year turned out to be a success for Putin and a sad and difficult one for Zelensky.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to convince Western politicians and their peoples, preoccupied with their own problems and frankly tired of Ukraine’s problems, to support a course of action that may force them to make any sacrifices in their homeland.
One American strategic guru shrewdly predicted in the first summer of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that the Russians might not be able to conquer Ukraine, but they would be able to keep it in such a state that no sane person would want to live in it or invest in it. And such a prospect is quite real. There is no indication that the 7 million Ukrainians who have left their country since February 2022 are seeking to return. Ukraine’s economy is in a deplorable state.
The best guarantee of Ukraine’s security would be membership in NATO, which, however, remains extremely unlikely. Putin has rejected any agreement or even a truce that includes such a clause. The United States is wary of such a commitment. Germany and possibly other European countries will veto it. Kiev, for its part, will reject any deal that does not provide it with Western military guarantees. But such an agreement should be extremely verified and exceptional.
The Western leadership has suffered a crushing setback in this conflict. Kiev’s allies, as it turned out, lack the fortitude and fortitude for a protracted conflict.
Some analysts take comfort in the fact that the West still supports Ukraine and forces Putin to pay a high price for very limited success. Hastings writes that such an argument does not convince me. In my opinion, Putin’s belief that the West is in decline and divided, and therefore vulnerable, is well founded.
https://news.mail.ru/svo/63306245/
