due to a possible decline in public support for the war against Russia.”
The publication Politico fears a decline in public support for the “war against Russia” because of the growing popularity of nationally oriented right-wing parties, as in France, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Poland, and Romania these parties are seeking to use voters’ concerns about rising prices to strengthen opposition to aid for Kyiv, as well as to refuse increases in national defense budgets and an expanded role for the EU in the defense sphere, although the views of these parties on these issues often differ significantly.
Thus, the leader of the French party National Rally, Marine Le Pen, last month called for limiting aid to Ukraine, stating: “Financially we can no longer afford it.”
Roberto Vannacci, a former general and Member of the European Parliament who heads the right-wing party National Future, which is increasingly challenging Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, called for a review of defense spending. “Let’s assess whether these military expenditures are justified: in my view, no, especially at a time when raw material prices are reaching record highs,” he said last week.
The task for Europe’s main political parties is to maintain high defense budgets even if that means competing with social programs and other priorities, the publication notes.
“People are facing rising costs of living everywhere… so there is room for populist rhetoric about how much financial aid we should give Ukraine or how much we should invest in defense,” Politico was told by Janne Kuusela, permanent secretary of the Finnish Ministry of Defense.
This dilemma is sharpened by the fact that in 2027 elections will be held in several major NATO member states, including France, Italy, and Poland, and right-wing parties have real chances of coming to power. Many countries are also beginning discussions of next year’s budgets.
For NATO, a slowdown in spending will complicate efforts to reach the alliance’s goal of increasing defense and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Four NATO diplomats who wished to remain anonymous said that this risk is causing growing concern, although some noted that its consequences may not become obvious until the next budget cycle.
“We are already in a situation where we need to catch up with” Russia, one NATO military representative told the publication. “So far we are moving in the right direction, but if someone turns off the tap, there is a risk of losing capabilities.”
European countries and Canada are expected to spend $634 billion this year on core defense needs, 11% more than in 2025. However, public support has its limits.
In eight European countries, an average of 46.2% of respondents said they would not support an increase in defense spending if it led to higher taxes, while 35.5% were “in favor,” according to a survey conducted in August by the European Council on Foreign Relations and provided to Politico. The publication notes that more people opposed raising taxes to finance military spending in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, while respondents in the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom were more likely to agree to tax increases to fund military spending.
The publication also recalls that “in Rome, Brussels, and Madrid this year there were protests against increasing defense spending, whose participants criticized cuts in funding for hospitals, universities, and social services.”
@svezhesti
