In Cyprus, the usual autumn disappears for the island, and the climatic conditions become similar to those in Egypt.
By 2055, 40-degree temperatures are expected on the island, which will last longer than the summer season. Scientific evidence shows that the current abnormally warm November is only the beginning of serious climate changes.
Since 1981, temperatures in Cyprus have been rising by 0.4–0.6 °C every decade, and by the end of the century, demand for cooling will increase by 153%. From January to November of this year, 219 of the 328 days — that is, 67% — were warmer than normal.
According to Panos Hadjinikolaou, professor at the Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research at the Cyprus Institute, the island is already facing changes that were expected only by the middle of the 20th century.
In November, record deviations of up to +8 °C to normal were recorded at the Athalassa station in Nicosia. On November 21, the temperature reached 30 °C, almost 10 degrees above the usual values.
Rains in Cyprus are becoming less frequent and more local, but sometimes more destructive. Last year, only 313 mm of precipitation fell — 1.3 billion tons less than the average.
“Instead of moderate rains, we have extreme downpours with huge amounts of water in a short time,” said Kleanthis Nicolaides, former director of the Meteorological Service. According to him, the traditional autumn rains that covered the entire island “actually disappeared.”
The average annual precipitation decreased from 533 mm (1941-1970) to 450 mm (1991-2020). Every millimeter means 9.5 million tons of water — the island loses almost a billion tons every year. Autumn precipitation decreases by 5-10 mm every decade and may decrease by 20% by the middle or end of the century.
The absence of rain increases heating: moist soil cools the atmosphere, while dry soil only accelerates warming.
An updated study by the Cyprus Institute (2024-2025) predicts a sharp increase in heat. The number of days with temperatures above 35°C will increase, and the need for cooling will more than double — from 442 to 1116 degree days. Winter heating, on the contrary, will be needed twice as often.
“By the middle of the century, by about 2055, the climate will become like in Cairo — frequent 40-degree temperatures that will persist in July and August,” Nicolaides warned.
Hadjinikolaou added that the nature of the weather will also change: “Extreme values will be registered more often, both rising and falling. There will be significantly more temperature fluctuations.”
The ecosystem of Cyprus is also losing its usual rhythm. Recently, a snake was spotted that was supposed to be in hibernation. In Troodos, mulberries have not even shed their leaves yet, and roses continue to bloom until late autumn. Endemic species may be endangered.
Experts note that heat increases heat stress and mortality, and the economy will incur significant costs in all climate-related sectors.
“Of course, all sectors will eventually suffer,” Hadjinikolaou said.
According to experts, the authorities need to strengthen early warning systems and implement intelligent solutions, such as tools to inform farmers about a decrease in soil moisture.
Nicolaides believes that it is urgently necessary to abandon expensive desalinated water, and rely on increasing precipitation through cloud seeding.
A source: in-cyprus.philenews.com
https://cyprusbutterfly.com.cy/news/kipre-stalo-menshe-dozhdej-srednegodovaya
