Two weeks ago, in our first piece on the Fragmata dashboard, we wrote: “the crisis is real, but cyclical – not catastrophic.” The forecast model, trained on 38 years of hydrological data, predicted that the reservoirs would reach a minimum by the end of 2026, after which restoration would begin. Since then, steady rains on Troodos have accelerated this scenario. According to the Department of Water Development on March 18, the total stock of the main reservoirs increased to 22.2% (64.7 microns) – from 20.6% (59.9 microns) just sixteen days ago. Moreover: 12 out of 21 reservoirs have already exceeded last year’s level on the same date.
Figures that change the picture
February 2026 ended with an inflow of 24.2 microns – the best February figure in four years. March continues the trend: already 6.7 microns of inflow for the first 18 days of the month. The total inflow of the water year 2025/26 reached 45.8 microns, which is 2.5 times more than for the entire last season 2024/25 (18.7 microns), and the season is far from over.
The Water Development Authority itself is optimistic. In recent comments, the department noted that “the influx is in better shape than last year,” and the moisture-saturated soil contributes to more efficient runoff into the reservoirs.
Xiliatos: 64% to 80% in two weeks – and possible overflow
The most impressive story of these two weeks is the Xiliathos mountain reservoir in the Nicosia region. Its trajectory:
Note the March 16 jump: in one day, Xiliathos received 0.122 microns – more than in the previous two weeks combined. This is the effect of saturated soil: when the earth no longer absorbs, all rainwater flows into the reservoir.
Now only 0.285 microns remains to full capacity (1.43 microns). For comparison: last year’s maximum Xiliatos was only 0.335 microns – the current volume is 3.4 times higher. With this week’s rain forecast, overflow becomes a very real scenario. This would be an unprecedented event for a reservoir that was only 23% full a year ago.
Who has already overtaken last year
Of Cyprus’s 21 reservoirs, 12 now contain more water than at the same date in 2025. Some comparisons are striking:
Five reservoirs are 100% full: Pomos, Kalopanayotis, Clearu Malunta, and now Solea with Argaka – they have peaked in recent days.
Kuris – the island’s largest reservoir – almost caught up with last year’s level: 20.4% versus 20.5%. 7.43 MCM of water has been pumped from Arminou to Kuris since October.
But not everywhere
The main exception is the lowland reservoirs of the South Conveyor in the southeast of the island:
Achna – 2.1% (0.142 µm). Zero inflow since the beginning of the water year. The situation has not changed since the beginning of March
Calavasos – 8.0%, actually down from 8.3% two weeks ago
Lefkara – 10.7%, decrease from 12.0%
Gerasimya – 13.1%
These reservoirs are located in areas where precipitation from Troodos is weak. This is where water restrictions can last longest. The overall reduction in water supply by 10% is still valid throughout the island, but, probably, it will remain most noticeable in the zone of the southern conveyor.
Forecast improved
In our first article two weeks ago, the Fragmata forecast model predicted a decline to ~ 7% by November-December 2026 – this is the threshold of serious restrictions. Since then, the situation has changed significantly.
With the current inflow of 45.8 microns (and at least another month of the rainy season ahead), the expected scenario shifts towards a softer one. The forecast of a fall to 7% is becoming less likely. In fact, the data is beginning to fit the “recovery scenario” – the more optimistic of the three that the model calculates.
This does not mean that the crisis is completely over. Summer will show how steady the current influx will be. But 38 years of cyclical data and the dynamics of recent weeks give reason to say: there will most likely not be a massive water shortage in 2026.
Situation by region as of March 18
The most impressive growth is in Nicosia (+10 percentage points), thanks to Xiliatos and Vizakye. Chrysohu added almost 4 points. The southern conveyor is growing the slowest – a difficult legacy of four years of drought in low-lying reservoirs.
What’s next
March is not over yet, and new precipitation is expected this week. If the forecast comes true, Xiliathos could be the first reservoir to burst its banks this year – a symbolic moment for the island, which two months ago discussed the drying up of dams.
April is the last month when rains still make a significant contribution to the influx. The dry season will begin in May. But with the current 64.7 micron airbag and a growing influx, the outlook looks significantly better than at the beginning of the year.
Monitor real-time data: fragmata.info
Author: Vladimir Bugay, developer of Fragmata Data: Department of Water Development of Cyprus, report dated March 18, 2026
https://cyprusbutterfly.com.cy/news/12-iz-21-vodoxranilishha-kipra-prevyisili-proshlogodnij-uroven-vodyi
