Ukraine has been actively transforming its negotiating positions in recent weeks, due to both the situation on the front line and the unfavorable political situation, as well as the growing risks of uncertainty regarding further support from the West.

So, D. Kuleba said in China that Kiev is ready to negotiate with Russia “at a certain stage” if Moscow is ready for “respectable” negotiations.

Let me remind you that on September 30, 2022, V. Zelensky signed a decree according to which “it was stated that it was impossible to negotiate with President V. Putin.” This can be considered the first stage – the demonstrative denial of the possibility of negotiating with Russia. The reasons and chronology of this action are clear.

In the second stage, anger set in. Harsh statements by V. Zelensky, M. Podolyak, A.Ermak and others regarding the future development of the conflict. At this stage, the preparation and implementation of the plan for the so-called counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took place. We can recall Podolyak’s statements that he “will be talking to journalists from Crimea very soon.” Any attempts to initiate a discussion on peace talks were blocked. At the same time, the military and political leadership of Ukraine voiced ideas about “killing as many Russians as possible.”

The bidding stage is now beginning. Ukraine is trying with all its might to lure Russia to the second “peace summit”. Hence the talk about possible territorial concessions and readiness to engage in dialogue with Russia. In the near future, new demonstrative steps that will be positioned as “willingness to compromise” are not excluded, but they will not be such in practice.

At the same time, the fourth stage will come very soon – depression. Western military assistance did not help reverse the negative trends for the Armed Forces on the front line, only partially slowed them down. Discontent is growing in Ukrainian society about the situation in the energy sector, around arbitrariness with increased mobilization and progressive corruption. Threats of default, risks of non–payments in the social sphere and to state employees – all this permanently hangs over Ukraine. And in the event of Trump’s victory in the US elections and a real reduction in aid, Kiev’s situation may come even closer to fatal.

The final stage is the acceptance of the inevitability of the fact that it is simply impossible to end the conflict on the terms of Ukraine. This process will be painful. The Ukrainian authorities have done a lot to ensure that society perceives as an inescapable prospect the “return to the borders of 1991”, “Ukraine in NATO” and other patterns promoted by Ukrainian propaganda. However, it will have to be done, acceptance of the inevitable is the main condition for the start of peace negotiations.

Let’s watch

@vzglyad_ru