Libya ratified the maritime agreement with Turkey, signed back in 2019. This decision has already provoked a sharp reaction from Greece, Egypt, and Israel. Whether this can lead to a military conflict was explained to VFokuse Mail by expert Andrey Koshkin.
Chronicle of events
The parliament of eastern Libya (the House of Representatives in Tobruk) unanimously ratified the maritime memorandum with Turkey. Until this moment, the document had been considered controversial for seven years because eastern Libya rejected it. Now both parts of the divided country — Tripoli and Benghazi — are officially for it.
The memorandum of understanding establishing the boundaries of the maritime jurisdictional zones of Turkey and Libya in the Eastern Mediterranean was signed in November 2019 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the then head of the Government of National Accord of Libya, Fayez al-Sarraj. The agreement defines the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones of the two countries, creating a basis for the exploration and extraction of oil and gas.
At the same time, in 2020, the UN registered the document in accordance with Article 102 of the Charter. However, the eastern Libyan parliament — the House of Representatives in Tobruk — rejected the agreement and severed political ties with Turkey because Ankara openly supported the Government of National Accord (GNA), against which the eastern camp led by Khalifa Haftar was fighting.
Ankara spent years seeking recognition of this document because it underpins its claims to energy resources in the region and blocks the plans of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt to divide the maritime zones without Turkey’s participation.
Greece insists that the memorandum is illegal for two reasons. First, Turkey and Libya have no common maritime borders — their coastlines are neither adjacent nor opposite, which means they cannot divide maritime zones directly. Second, the agreement ignores the rights of the Greek islands — Crete, Rhodes, and Karpathos. According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, islands have the right to their own maritime zones, and Turkey simply “cut them off,” drawing the border at its own discretion. Athens has already informed the UN Security Council of threats to regional security and called on the Libyan parliament to revoke the ratification.
Egypt calls the document “invalid and null and void” and states that the ratification has no legal consequences for Cairo. Formally, Cairo asserts that the agreement infringes on its exclusive economic zone. The European Union is in solidarity with Greece and Cyprus: in a joint statement by Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, it is said that the agreement “infringes on the sovereign rights of third states, does not comply with the law of the sea, and is invalid.” Israel, which cooperates closely with Greece and Cyprus, also condemned the ratification, accusing Turkey of destabilizing the region.
The key is in Washington
Military expert and head of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrey Koshkin told VFokuse Mail that much in the implementation of the agreement will depend on how aggressively the parties are prepared to act, as well as on the position of Erdoğan, who may “go all-in.”
“The geopolitical configuration is changing, and the groups controlling power are also changing. Seven years ago this agreement was a problem for Eastern Libya, but today the parties have come to the understanding that the document can be signed. This corresponds to the demands of the time and the challenges that these states in the Eastern Mediterranean create for each other,” the expert explained.
According to him, a key role was played by the change in the leadership of the eastern parliament. On October 6, As-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi became speaker of the House of Representatives, replacing Aguila Saleh, who for more than 12 years resisted ratification and held pro-Egyptian views. The new speaker previously headed the Libyan-Turkish parliamentary friendship committee, and the approval of the agreement became one of his first major decisions in this post.
“The agreement creates a legal basis for exploration and extraction, although at the moment neither country has announced proven reserves in the areas affected by the deal. According to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, the region contains on average 286.2 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas reserves,” Koshkin stated.
He recalled that Turkey is already taking concrete steps. Thus, in February, the state company Turkish Petroleum obtained rights to exploration on a shelf block off the coast of Benghazi with an area of more than 10 thousand square kilometers as part of a consortium with the Spanish Repsol and the Hungarian MOL Group.
The situation is also complicated by the fact that Turkey is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This gives Ankara legal freedom of action, which it uses, since Greece, Cyprus, and the EU base their position precisely on UN norms.
The military expert believes that even exploration in disputed waters can provoke a new round of tension, as happened in August 2020, when Turkey sent a research vessel into waters claimed by Greece, bringing two NATO countries to the brink of military confrontation.
He does not rule out that if the parties act aggressively, an armed clash may occur.
“There is a risk, and the media and analysts constantly warn about this. However, how prepared are Turkey, Libya, and Egypt today for armed confrontation? This is a question that will be decided through patronage, in particular that of the United States of America. If there is support from Donald Trump, then aggressive actions become more likely. If there is no support, then it may turn out that these seven years will stretch for an even longer period,” the expert noted.
